{
  "generatedAt": "2026-04-25",
  "count": 12,
  "observations": [
    {
      "id": "2026-04-property-type-luxury-home-chubb",
      "capturedAt": "2026-04-24",
      "intent": "home",
      "lever": "property-type naming",
      "title": "Property-type naming — luxury home",
      "evidence": "Chubb wins luxury-home queries on both LLMs at the maximum stability we measured. Cross-LLM agreement at 5/5 + 5/5; under the null this is ~1 in 39 billion.",
      "query": "What's the best housing insurance for a luxury home in Seattle?",
      "prediction": {
        "carrier": "Chubb",
        "rationale": "high-net-worth specialist with saturated editorial coverage"
      },
      "runs": [
        {
          "llm": "perplexity",
          "results": [
            "Chubb",
            "Chubb",
            "Chubb",
            "Chubb",
            "Chubb"
          ],
          "modal": {
            "value": "Chubb",
            "count": 5
          }
        },
        {
          "llm": "gemini",
          "results": [
            "Chubb",
            "Chubb",
            "Chubb",
            "Chubb",
            "Chubb"
          ],
          "modal": {
            "value": "Chubb",
            "count": 5
          }
        }
      ],
      "carriersObserved": [
        "Chubb"
      ],
      "referencePages": [
        {
          "label": "NerdWallet — best home insurance",
          "url": "https://www.nerdwallet.com/insurance/homeowners/best-home-insurance"
        },
        {
          "label": "Bankrate — best homeowners insurance",
          "url": "https://www.bankrate.com/insurance/homeowners-insurance/best-home-insurance-companies/"
        },
        {
          "label": "Chubb — high-net-worth home",
          "url": "https://www.chubb.com/us-en/individuals-families/home-insurance.html"
        }
      ],
      "impact": "clear",
      "rawDataPath": "data/probe-validation-v2-2026-04-24.json#queryId=h2-luxury"
    },
    {
      "id": "2026-04-property-type-historic-home-chubb",
      "capturedAt": "2026-04-24",
      "intent": "home",
      "lever": "property-type naming",
      "title": "Property-type naming — historic home",
      "evidence": "Chubb wins historic-home queries 4/5 on Perplexity (one State Farm slip) and 5/5 on Gemini. Cross-LLM agreement on the same carrier confirms the property-type ownership pattern extends beyond luxury.",
      "query": "What's the best housing insurance for a historic home in Seattle?",
      "prediction": {
        "carrier": "Chubb",
        "rationale": "specialty home category with carrier-aligned editorial depth"
      },
      "runs": [
        {
          "llm": "perplexity",
          "results": [
            "State Farm",
            "Chubb",
            "Chubb",
            "Chubb",
            "Chubb"
          ],
          "modal": {
            "value": "Chubb",
            "count": 4
          }
        },
        {
          "llm": "gemini",
          "results": [
            "Chubb",
            "Chubb",
            "Chubb",
            "Chubb",
            "Chubb"
          ],
          "modal": {
            "value": "Chubb",
            "count": 5
          }
        }
      ],
      "carriersObserved": [
        "Chubb"
      ],
      "referencePages": [
        {
          "label": "NerdWallet — historic home insurance",
          "url": "https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/insurance/historic-home-insurance"
        },
        {
          "label": "Chubb — masterpiece home",
          "url": "https://www.chubb.com/us-en/individuals-families/home-insurance.html"
        }
      ],
      "note": "Chubb's win across luxury + historic suggests it owns the broader 'premium / elevated-risk property' category, not one specific property type.",
      "impact": "clear",
      "rawDataPath": "data/probe-validation-v2-2026-04-24.json#queryId=h2-historic"
    },
    {
      "id": "2026-04-property-type-condo-home-nationwide",
      "capturedAt": "2026-04-24",
      "intent": "home",
      "lever": "property-type naming",
      "title": "Property-type naming — condo",
      "evidence": "Nationwide wins condo-insurance queries cross-LLM. Perplexity returns Nationwide 3/5 (with two State Farm slips), Gemini returns Nationwide 5/5. Cross-LLM agreement at the modal carrier.",
      "query": "What's the best housing insurance for a condo in Seattle?",
      "prediction": {
        "carrier": "Nationwide",
        "rationale": "originated in the Seattle ablation as the unanimous condo answer"
      },
      "runs": [
        {
          "llm": "perplexity",
          "results": [
            "Nationwide",
            "Nationwide",
            "State Farm",
            "State Farm",
            "Nationwide"
          ],
          "modal": {
            "value": "Nationwide",
            "count": 3
          }
        },
        {
          "llm": "gemini",
          "results": [
            "Nationwide",
            "Nationwide",
            "Nationwide",
            "Nationwide",
            "Nationwide"
          ],
          "modal": {
            "value": "Nationwide",
            "count": 5
          }
        }
      ],
      "carriersObserved": [
        "Nationwide"
      ],
      "referencePages": [
        {
          "label": "NerdWallet — best condo insurance",
          "url": "https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/insurance/condo-insurance"
        },
        {
          "label": "Bankrate — condo insurance",
          "url": "https://www.bankrate.com/insurance/homeowners-insurance/best-condo-insurance/"
        }
      ],
      "impact": "clear",
      "rawDataPath": "data/probe-validation-v2-2026-04-24.json#queryId=h2-condo"
    },
    {
      "id": "2026-04-emerging-category-ev-auto-travelers",
      "capturedAt": "2026-04-24",
      "intent": "auto",
      "lever": "emerging-category presence",
      "title": "Emerging-category presence — EV insurance",
      "evidence": "Travelers wins electric-vehicle auto queries 4/5 on Perplexity and 5/5 on Gemini. Neither EV-native insurtechs (Root, Lemonade) nor Tesla Insurance ranks first. Travelers captured EV editorial coverage early.",
      "query": "What's the best car insurance for an electric vehicle in Seattle?",
      "prediction": {
        "carrier": "varies",
        "rationale": "open emerging category — could be insurtech, OEM, or generalist"
      },
      "runs": [
        {
          "llm": "perplexity",
          "results": [
            "Travelers",
            "Travelers",
            "Auto-Owners",
            "Travelers",
            "Travelers"
          ],
          "modal": {
            "value": "Travelers",
            "count": 4
          }
        },
        {
          "llm": "gemini",
          "results": [
            "Travelers",
            "Travelers",
            "Travelers",
            "Travelers",
            "Travelers"
          ],
          "modal": {
            "value": "Travelers",
            "count": 5
          }
        }
      ],
      "carriersObserved": [
        "Travelers"
      ],
      "referencePages": [
        {
          "label": "NerdWallet — EV insurance",
          "url": "https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/insurance/electric-car-insurance"
        },
        {
          "label": "Bankrate — electric car insurance",
          "url": "https://www.bankrate.com/insurance/car/electric-car-insurance/"
        }
      ],
      "impact": "clear",
      "rawDataPath": "data/probe-auto-insurance-2026-04-24.json#queryId=v-ev"
    },
    {
      "id": "2026-04-specialty-use-case-rideshare-auto-state-farm",
      "capturedAt": "2026-04-24",
      "intent": "auto",
      "lever": "category editorial depth on specialty use-case",
      "title": "Specialty use-case ownership — inverted (rideshare)",
      "evidence": "State Farm wins rideshare-driver queries 3/5 on Perplexity and 5/5 on Gemini. Progressive — the actual market specialist (TNC endorsement pioneer) — does not place first. Editorial depth, not market-specialty status, drives retrieval.",
      "query": "What's the best car insurance for rideshare drivers in Seattle?",
      "prediction": {
        "carrier": "Progressive",
        "rationale": "rideshare-specialty pioneer in the actual market"
      },
      "runs": [
        {
          "llm": "perplexity",
          "results": [
            "State Farm",
            "State Farm",
            "Progressive",
            "Auto-Owners",
            "State Farm"
          ],
          "modal": {
            "value": "State Farm",
            "count": 3
          }
        },
        {
          "llm": "gemini",
          "results": [
            "State Farm",
            "State Farm",
            "State Farm",
            "State Farm",
            "State Farm"
          ],
          "modal": {
            "value": "State Farm",
            "count": 5
          }
        }
      ],
      "carriersObserved": [
        "State Farm"
      ],
      "referencePages": [
        {
          "label": "NerdWallet — rideshare insurance",
          "url": "https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/insurance/rideshare-insurance"
        }
      ],
      "note": "Specialty carriers can recover their surface by closing the editorial-depth gap — brand-specialty alone is not enough.",
      "impact": "clear",
      "rawDataPath": "data/probe-auto-insurance-2026-04-24.json#queryId=u-rideshare"
    },
    {
      "id": "2026-04-specialty-use-case-sr22-auto-geico",
      "capturedAt": "2026-04-24",
      "intent": "auto",
      "lever": "category editorial depth on specialty use-case",
      "title": "Specialty use-case ownership — inverted (SR-22)",
      "evidence": "GEICO wins SR-22 queries 5/5 on Perplexity and 3/5 on Gemini. Dairyland — the largest US SR-22 monoline writer — does not place first. Same editorial-depth pattern as rideshare.",
      "query": "What's the best car insurance in Seattle for SR-22?",
      "prediction": {
        "carrier": "Dairyland",
        "rationale": "largest US SR-22 monoline writer"
      },
      "runs": [
        {
          "llm": "perplexity",
          "results": [
            "GEICO",
            "GEICO",
            "GEICO",
            "GEICO",
            "GEICO"
          ],
          "modal": {
            "value": "GEICO",
            "count": 5
          }
        },
        {
          "llm": "gemini",
          "results": [
            "State Farm",
            "State Farm",
            "GEICO",
            "GEICO",
            "GEICO"
          ],
          "modal": {
            "value": "GEICO",
            "count": 3
          }
        }
      ],
      "carriersObserved": [
        "GEICO"
      ],
      "referencePages": [
        {
          "label": "NerdWallet — SR-22 insurance",
          "url": "https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/insurance/sr-22-insurance"
        },
        {
          "label": "The Zebra — SR-22",
          "url": "https://www.thezebra.com/auto-insurance/driver/sr-22/"
        }
      ],
      "impact": "clear",
      "rawDataPath": "data/probe-auto-insurance-2026-04-24.json#queryId=u-sr22"
    },
    {
      "id": "2026-04-regional-monopoly-nj-auto-njm",
      "capturedAt": "2026-04-24",
      "intent": "auto",
      "lever": "regional monopoly (line-specific)",
      "title": "Regional monopoly — NJM owns NJ auto",
      "evidence": "NJM wins Newark, NJ auto queries 4/5 on both LLMs (one Plymouth Rock per LLM). NJM writes ~1 in 4 NJ auto policies — the cleanest regional-champion case in the dataset.",
      "query": "What's the best car insurance in Newark, New Jersey?",
      "prediction": {
        "carrier": "NJM",
        "rationale": "overwhelming NJ auto market share"
      },
      "runs": [
        {
          "llm": "perplexity",
          "results": [
            "NJM",
            "NJM",
            "Plymouth Rock",
            "NJM",
            "NJM"
          ],
          "modal": {
            "value": "NJM",
            "count": 4
          }
        },
        {
          "llm": "gemini",
          "results": [
            "NJM",
            "NJM",
            "NJM",
            "NJM",
            "Plymouth Rock"
          ],
          "modal": {
            "value": "NJM",
            "count": 4
          }
        }
      ],
      "carriersObserved": [
        "NJM"
      ],
      "referencePages": [
        {
          "label": "NJM.com",
          "url": "https://www.njm.com/"
        },
        {
          "label": "NerdWallet — best NJ auto insurance",
          "url": "https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/insurance/new-jersey-car-insurance"
        }
      ],
      "note": "Caveat: same carrier doesn't win across lines. MAPFRE owns Boston home (5/5 + 3/5) but does NOT own Boston auto (Plymouth Rock + State Farm split). Line-of-business dominance is required.",
      "impact": "clear",
      "rawDataPath": "data/probe-auto-insurance-2026-04-24.json#queryId=r-nj"
    },
    {
      "id": "2026-04-regional-monopoly-ma-home-mapfre",
      "capturedAt": "2026-04-24",
      "intent": "home",
      "lever": "regional monopoly (line-specific)",
      "title": "Regional monopoly — MAPFRE owns MA home",
      "evidence": "MAPFRE wins Boston, MA home queries 5/5 on Perplexity and 3/5 on Gemini (with Amica slips). The HQ'd carrier (Liberty Mutual, Boston) does not place first — regional volume share matters, not HQ address.",
      "query": "What's the best value housing insurance in Boston, Massachusetts?",
      "prediction": {
        "carrier": "Liberty Mutual",
        "rationale": "Boston HQ — but actual answer follows regional share, not HQ"
      },
      "runs": [
        {
          "llm": "perplexity",
          "results": [
            "MAPFRE",
            "MAPFRE",
            "MAPFRE",
            "MAPFRE",
            "MAPFRE"
          ],
          "modal": {
            "value": "MAPFRE",
            "count": 5
          }
        },
        {
          "llm": "gemini",
          "results": [
            "Amica",
            "MAPFRE",
            "MAPFRE",
            "MAPFRE",
            "Amica"
          ],
          "modal": {
            "value": "MAPFRE",
            "count": 3
          }
        }
      ],
      "carriersObserved": [
        "MAPFRE"
      ],
      "referencePages": [
        {
          "label": "Bankrate — best Boston MA home insurance",
          "url": "https://www.bankrate.com/insurance/homeowners-insurance/massachusetts/"
        }
      ],
      "impact": "clear",
      "rawDataPath": "data/probe-validation-v2-2026-04-24.json#queryId=h1-boston"
    },
    {
      "id": "2026-04-specialty-peril-jewelry-home-chubb",
      "capturedAt": "2026-04-24",
      "intent": "home",
      "lever": "specialty-peril coverage (saturated category)",
      "title": "Specialty-peril coverage — high-value jewelry",
      "evidence": "Chubb wins jewelry-coverage queries 5/5 on both LLMs. Specialty-peril surfacing replicates cleanly when the category itself has saturated editorial coverage (high-net-worth = Chubb's editorial home turf).",
      "query": "What's the best insurance in Seattle for high-value jewelry coverage?",
      "prediction": {
        "carrier": "Chubb",
        "rationale": "high-net-worth editorial saturation"
      },
      "runs": [
        {
          "llm": "perplexity",
          "results": [
            "Chubb",
            "Chubb",
            "Chubb",
            "Chubb",
            "Chubb"
          ],
          "modal": {
            "value": "Chubb",
            "count": 5
          }
        },
        {
          "llm": "gemini",
          "results": [
            "Chubb",
            "Chubb",
            "Chubb",
            "Chubb",
            "Chubb"
          ],
          "modal": {
            "value": "Chubb",
            "count": 5
          }
        }
      ],
      "carriersObserved": [
        "Chubb"
      ],
      "referencePages": [
        {
          "label": "Chubb — high-value jewelry",
          "url": "https://www.chubb.com/us-en/individuals-families/products/valuable-articles.html"
        },
        {
          "label": "NerdWallet — jewelry insurance",
          "url": "https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/insurance/jewelry-insurance"
        }
      ],
      "note": "Wildfire and flood specialty perils do NOT replicate at this level — generalists win those by default. Specialty wins are conditional on editorial saturation.",
      "impact": "small",
      "rawDataPath": "data/probe-validation-v2-2026-04-24.json#queryId=h3-jewelry"
    },
    {
      "id": "2026-04-comparison-site-citations-meta",
      "capturedAt": "2026-04-24",
      "intent": "home",
      "lever": "comparison-site dependence",
      "title": "Comparison sites are the dominant Perplexity citation surface",
      "evidence": "Across 8 US cities × Perplexity in the multi-city probe, ~58% of unique citation hosts are consumer-comparison sites: NerdWallet, The Zebra, Bankrate, Policygenius, Insurify. Every winning carrier in the observations above is named on at least one of these sites in the matching category.",
      "runs": [],
      "carriersObserved": [],
      "referencePages": [
        {
          "label": "NerdWallet",
          "url": "https://www.nerdwallet.com/insurance"
        },
        {
          "label": "The Zebra",
          "url": "https://www.thezebra.com/"
        },
        {
          "label": "Bankrate — insurance",
          "url": "https://www.bankrate.com/insurance/"
        },
        {
          "label": "Policygenius",
          "url": "https://www.policygenius.com/"
        },
        {
          "label": "Insurify",
          "url": "https://insurify.com/"
        }
      ],
      "impact": "clear",
      "rawDataPath": "data/probe-multi-city-2026-04-24.json#provider=perplexity"
    },
    {
      "id": "2026-04-hq-city-effect-myth",
      "capturedAt": "2026-04-24",
      "intent": "home",
      "lever": "HQ-city presence",
      "title": "Being HQ'd in the query city",
      "evidence": "Tested across 5 HQ cities. Only 1 of 10 observations matched the predicted HQ-city carrier. Bloomington IL → State Farm only on Gemini (Perplexity returned Allstate). Columbus OH (Nationwide HQ) → Cincinnati and Erie. Boston MA (Liberty Mutual HQ) → MAPFRE on both LLMs. HQ address has no observed lift.",
      "runs": [
        {
          "llm": "perplexity",
          "results": [
            "State Farm",
            "Allstate",
            "USAA",
            "USAA",
            "Allstate"
          ],
          "modal": {
            "value": "Allstate",
            "count": 2
          }
        }
      ],
      "carriersObserved": [],
      "referencePages": [],
      "impact": "none",
      "rawDataPath": "data/probe-validation-v2-2026-04-24.json#queryId=h1-bloomington"
    },
    {
      "id": "2026-04-market-specialist-without-editorial-depth",
      "capturedAt": "2026-04-24",
      "intent": "auto",
      "lever": "being the market specialist alone",
      "title": "Being the actual market specialist — without matching editorial depth",
      "evidence": "Hagerty (largest US classic-car insurer) does not win the LLM classic-car query. Dairyland (largest SR-22 monoline writer) does not win SR-22. Progressive (rideshare-insurance category pioneer) does not win rideshare. Tesla Insurance does not win the Tesla query on Perplexity. Specialist brand alone does not surface; editorial depth wins.",
      "runs": [],
      "carriersObserved": [],
      "referencePages": [],
      "note": "Inverse of the editorial-depth observations above. Specialists can recover their surface by closing the editorial-coverage gap, not by leaning on category-specialty positioning.",
      "impact": "none"
    }
  ]
}